The early bird gets the worm

(I considered an image from I'm Thinking of Ending Things to accompany this post, but decided that four straight posts with artwork related to this movie would be a bridge too far for those of you who don't, you know, like the movie.)

The reason film critics jam in so much December viewing before publishing their year-end lists is that even if they've kept up with most of what's been released, an increasingly difficult prospect with the sheer quantity of things available these days, they won't have a definitive grasp on the year until the late awards season movies get released by various studios angling for Oscars.

I myself used to look forward with glee to the last two weeks of December, when I imagined that my whole top ten might be upended.

The reality is that December movies have had increasingly less impact on my year-end rankings in recent years, and I'm wondering if this is an industry change or a me change.

I'm Thinking of Ending Things marks just the latest favorite film of the year that I saw way before December. I had a second viewing of it in December, but my first viewing was September 9th.

This pattern has been continuing for long enough that I thought it was finally time to write a piece about it. 

Here, let's go back ten years. This is when I saw my favorite films, dating back to 2011:

2020 - I'm Thinking of Ending Things - September 9, 2020
2019 - Parasite - June 27, 2019
2018 - First Reformed - August 15, 2018
2017 - A Ghost Story - August 5, 2017
2016 - Toni Erdmann - August 3, 2016
2015 - Inside Out - June 7, 2015
2014 - Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) - November 17, 2014
2013 - Beyond the Hills - September 3, 2013
2012 - Ruby Sparks - December 26, 2012
2011 - A Separation - January 5, 2012

The last six years are particularly notable in this regard, as my September 9th viewing of I'm Thinking of Ending Things represented the latest in the year I watched any of those #1s. Before 2015 things lean a bit more traditionally, but even my December 26th viewing of Ruby Sparks was not a late-year release. It was when I happened to catch this movie on DVD following its July 25th theatrical release. The Birdman viewing was pre-Thanksgiving, though I remember that the movie got released in Australia the day before my list closed -- so if I hadn't seen it on a trip to America, I might have really had my list shaken up right at the end, or more likely, not been able to recognize it as my #1. (In other words, the early Birdman was able to get the worm.)

The fact that these ten years start with A Separation is significant, because that was the last time my list got a big jolt so late in the year -- in fact, actually in the new calendar year. It was a welcome jolt that year, because without A Separation, my #1 movie would have been Red State. And as much as I love Red State (it made my top 25 of the decade), I just couldn't wrap my head around having a Kevin Smith movie as my #1 of any year. Fortunately, no shenanigans were required -- A Separation really was that good. (And finished about eight slots higher than Red State on my best of the decade, as evidence of its genuine superiority in my eyes.)

So what does this all mean?

I can't discount the effect of my process on how I think about all this. The longer and more involved my year-end wrap-up posts have gotten, the more advanced preparation they require, meaning I may start to cement my thoughts on the year's films earlier than I used to. I've gotten to a point where for about two weeks at the end of my viewing schedule, I'm kind of praying not to see any really great movies because I've already rough-drafted my top ten. That said, I did see three of this year's top ten since December 30th, with Soul reaching as high as #4. 

I think it also helps to sit with a movie for a while to determine how you feel about it. Last year, I saw Portrait of a Lady on Fire on December 31st, and it ended up at #2. Could it have overtaken Parasite if I'd seen it a month earlier? Maybe. However, when I ultimately watched them both again this past April/May, I did confirm that Parasite still had the slight edge.

The biggest challenge in this regard might have come in 2013, when I saw my #3 film of the year, Inside Llewyn Davis, on the last day. At the time I wondered if it should leapfrog Before Midnight (#2) and Beyond the Hills (#1), but it was just too close to the end for me to seriously entertain that idea. Then again, time has proven me correct on that as well, or at least consistent, as Beyond the Hills was my #11 of the decade while Inside Llewyn Davis was only #23.

I also think the "late-year awards contender" is not quite as much of a thing as it has been in the past. We obviously have to disregard the highly unusual year just completed, but even in 2019, 1917 was a film that got released right at the end, while Parasite had been around longer to gather more buzz and word of mouth. Parasite ultimately won best picture. It may no longer seem like a late release gives a film enough of a chance to accumulate the necessary zeitgeist momentum. Whereas once the idea was to have good films fresh in the memories of Academy voters, meaning anything released earlier in the year didn't stand a chance, I reckon that could be changing.

Films debuting on streaming services muddies those waters further, as they don't seem to be as strategically planned for awards consideration, though there are exceptions like Mank. (Of course, such movies aren't eligible for awards at all, in most years, unless they get a theatrical release in addition to their streaming release.)

In terms of practical ways to address this -- assuming it's something that even needs "addressing" -- the first step is to realize that I could be showing a bias against films released too late in the year to earn serious consideration for my #1 spot. That will at least trigger an awareness as I watch movies late in 2021, and help me be certain to give them a fair shake.

Really, though, a #1 movie is a #1 movie. You know it when you see it. The converse was what I knew about Red State in 2011, that it was not really a #1 movie. When it's #1, you just know.

Of course, there's no guarantee that a given year will have a "true" #1 movie for you -- something you feel, beyond a shadow of a doubt, deserves to be honored alongside the other films you've deemed worthy of that honor in the past. I have never had such a year, as every movie I have ever selected as my #1 has had that certain feel to it, and almost every one received five stars from me on first assessment. (The only exception was last year, when I gave Parasite only 4.5 stars on my first viewing -- but that was obviously an overly conservative assessment, as by January it had risen all the way up to #13 for the whole decade.)

So we're off and running on a new year. I've got my first few 2021 movies lined up and ready for watching. 

If my recent tendencies are any indication, they could have a real shot for end of year glory.